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PATTERN-3549

XRP_USDT · 4h · ID 5

Overview

Pattern return 5.91% Est. P&L $59.13
Long baseline -33.91% Est. P&L $-339.10
Short baseline 33.91% Est. P&L $339.10
Price Δ (buy & hold) -33.91% Est. P&L $-339.10
Candidate PATTERN-3549
Pair · Interval XRP_USDT · 4h
Window length 4 candles
Updated 2025-10-17 16:33
Reference price 2.268000
Packets 51447

Window & Trade

Entry time 2025-07-24 03:00
Entry price 3.431700
Exit time 2025-10-15 11:00
Exit price 2.268000
Window duration 2000000.00 h
Trade size $1000.00
Trades executed 22
Entry trigger Three Drop Then Rise
Orientation bias Long bias (positive return)
Exit trigger Post Wait Drop
Total trades 22
Win rate 36.36%
Avg trade return 0.27%
Avg bars held 5.82
Best trade 5.33%
Worst trade -2.17%
Scenario Return % Est. P&L
Pattern (short-term) 5.91% $59.13
Long baseline -33.91% $-339.10
Short baseline 33.91% $339.10
Price Δ (buy & hold) -33.91% $-339.10
Entry rationale Long setup

Entry opened after 3 consecutive drops followed by the first bullish candle.

  • Entry price: 3.192
  • Commission per side: 0.001
  • Total trades: 22
  • Win rate so far: 36.36%
  • Mandatory post-entry hold: 5 bars
  • Exit trigger: first drop after the mandatory hold period
Exit rationale Exit · Post Wait Drop

Closed 22 trades; final exit reason: post_wait_drop. Aggregate return: 5.91%.

  • Last trade direction: long
  • Bars held: 5
  • Trade P&L: -0.38%
  • Average trade return: 0.27%
  • Average holding: 5.82 bars
  • Exit mix: Post Wait Drop 22/22 (100.0%)
  • Waited at least 5 bars before looking for a drop to exit.

Trade log

# Direction Entry time Entry price Exit time Exit price Return % Bars held Exit reason
1 LONG 2025-07-24 03:00 3.192000 2025-07-24 23:00 3.145300 -1.66% 5 Post Wait Drop
2 LONG 2025-08-01 11:00 2.970700 2025-08-02 11:00 2.940400 -1.22% 6 Post Wait Drop
3 LONG 2025-08-03 03:00 2.835800 2025-08-04 11:00 2.992500 5.33% 8 Post Wait Drop
4 LONG 2025-08-08 19:00 3.338900 2025-08-09 15:00 3.273000 -2.17% 5 Post Wait Drop
5 LONG 2025-08-12 03:00 3.148400 2025-08-12 23:00 3.267600 3.59% 5 Post Wait Drop
6 LONG 2025-08-14 23:00 3.079200 2025-08-16 11:00 3.104400 0.62% 9 Post Wait Drop
7 LONG 2025-08-18 11:00 2.964400 2025-08-19 15:00 2.929600 -1.37% 7 Post Wait Drop
8 LONG 2025-08-22 07:00 2.860100 2025-08-23 03:00 2.993900 4.48% 5 Post Wait Drop
9 LONG 2025-08-25 11:00 2.942900 2025-08-26 11:00 2.901100 -1.62% 6 Post Wait Drop
10 LONG 2025-08-27 11:00 2.998400 2025-08-28 15:00 2.981700 -0.76% 7 Post Wait Drop
11 LONG 2025-09-01 07:00 2.794300 2025-09-02 07:00 2.794000 -0.21% 6 Post Wait Drop
12 LONG 2025-09-06 23:00 2.809800 2025-09-07 19:00 2.862700 1.68% 5 Post Wait Drop
13 LONG 2025-09-09 07:00 3.020000 2025-09-10 11:00 2.971000 -1.82% 7 Post Wait Drop
14 LONG 2025-09-14 19:00 3.038000 2025-09-15 19:00 2.988300 -1.84% 6 Post Wait Drop
15 LONG 2025-09-19 23:00 2.990100 2025-09-20 19:00 2.974400 -0.73% 5 Post Wait Drop
16 LONG 2025-09-22 11:00 2.816200 2025-09-23 11:00 2.858400 1.30% 6 Post Wait Drop
17 LONG 2025-09-24 07:00 2.873600 2025-09-25 03:00 2.873000 -0.22% 5 Post Wait Drop
18 LONG 2025-09-30 19:00 2.863700 2025-10-01 15:00 2.941900 2.53% 5 Post Wait Drop
19 LONG 2025-10-04 19:00 2.950100 2025-10-05 15:00 3.012800 1.93% 5 Post Wait Drop
20 LONG 2025-10-08 07:00 2.858000 2025-10-09 03:00 2.844300 -0.68% 5 Post Wait Drop
21 LONG 2025-10-11 03:00 2.397400 2025-10-11 23:00 2.381900 -0.85% 5 Post Wait Drop
22 LONG 2025-10-14 15:00 2.497400 2025-10-15 11:00 2.492800 -0.38% 5 Post Wait Drop

Performance Trajectory

Highlighted window marks the simulated trade; subsequent candles show baseline projections.

Short-term synthetic strategy vs. long/short baselines over subsequent windows.

Trade Timeline (before / during / after)

# Side Prev close Entry time Entry price Exit time Exit price Next close Return % Bars held Exit reason
1 LONG 3.183800 2025-07-24 03:00 3.192000 2025-07-24 23:00 3.145300 3.022400 -1.66% 5 Post Wait Drop
2 LONG 2.955800 2025-08-01 11:00 2.970700 2025-08-02 11:00 2.940400 2.830000 -1.22% 6 Post Wait Drop
3 LONG 2.769500 2025-08-03 03:00 2.835800 2025-08-04 11:00 2.992500 3.355800 5.33% 8 Post Wait Drop
4 LONG 3.221600 2025-08-08 19:00 3.338900 2025-08-09 15:00 3.273000 3.209000 -2.17% 5 Post Wait Drop
5 LONG 3.129500 2025-08-12 03:00 3.148400 2025-08-12 23:00 3.267600 3.218100 3.59% 5 Post Wait Drop
6 LONG 3.068200 2025-08-14 23:00 3.079200 2025-08-16 11:00 3.104400 3.087700 0.62% 9 Post Wait Drop
7 LONG 2.963900 2025-08-18 11:00 2.964400 2025-08-19 15:00 2.929600 2.868200 -1.37% 7 Post Wait Drop
8 LONG 2.833100 2025-08-22 07:00 2.860100 2025-08-23 03:00 2.993900 3.025800 4.48% 5 Post Wait Drop
9 LONG 2.938400 2025-08-25 11:00 2.942900 2025-08-26 11:00 2.901100 3.012300 -1.62% 6 Post Wait Drop
10 LONG 2.993400 2025-08-27 11:00 2.998400 2025-08-28 15:00 2.981700 2.800200 -0.76% 7 Post Wait Drop
11 LONG 2.742000 2025-09-01 07:00 2.794300 2025-09-02 07:00 2.794000 2.806400 -0.21% 6 Post Wait Drop
12 LONG 2.794400 2025-09-06 23:00 2.809800 2025-09-07 19:00 2.862700 2.979800 1.68% 5 Post Wait Drop
13 LONG 2.950100 2025-09-09 07:00 3.020000 2025-09-10 11:00 2.971000 3.084100 -1.82% 7 Post Wait Drop
14 LONG 3.031400 2025-09-14 19:00 3.038000 2025-09-15 19:00 2.988300 3.030400 -1.84% 6 Post Wait Drop
15 LONG 2.986200 2025-09-19 23:00 2.990100 2025-09-20 19:00 2.974400 2.970100 -0.73% 5 Post Wait Drop
16 LONG 2.806000 2025-09-22 11:00 2.816200 2025-09-23 11:00 2.858400 2.853200 1.30% 6 Post Wait Drop
17 LONG 2.814000 2025-09-24 07:00 2.873600 2025-09-25 03:00 2.873000 2.874000 -0.22% 5 Post Wait Drop
18 LONG 2.827900 2025-09-30 19:00 2.863700 2025-10-01 15:00 2.941900 3.018000 2.53% 5 Post Wait Drop
19 LONG 2.949700 2025-10-04 19:00 2.950100 2025-10-05 15:00 3.012800 2.856800 1.93% 5 Post Wait Drop
20 LONG 2.846400 2025-10-08 07:00 2.858000 2025-10-09 03:00 2.844300 2.741700 -0.68% 5 Post Wait Drop
21 LONG 2.370400 2025-10-11 03:00 2.397400 2025-10-11 23:00 2.381900 2.560600 -0.85% 5 Post Wait Drop
22 LONG 2.451700 2025-10-14 15:00 2.497400 2025-10-15 11:00 2.492800 2.433300 -0.38% 5 Post Wait Drop

Forward Projections

Projection windows 0
Avg long
Avg short
Avg price Δ
≥ 0 windows (L / S / Δ) 0 / 0 / 0

No forward windows were recorded for this run.

Metadata Highlights

Score 0.059126
Created 2025-10-17 16:33
Updated 2025-10-17 16:33
Key Value
pattern_id three_drop_then_rise
pattern_name Three Drops Then Rise
pattern_window 4
trade_count 22
win_rate 0.3636
total_return 0.059126
avg_return 0.002688
avg_bars 5.82
first_trade_time 2025-07-24 03:00 (1753315200000)
last_trade_time 2025-10-15 11:00 (1760515200000)
exit_reason_counts {"post_wait_drop":22}
exit_reason_shares {"post_wait_drop":1}
drop_streak_required 3
post_entry_wait_bars 5
exit_rule first_drop_after_wait
commission_per_side 0.001
trade_size 1000

Raw Payloads

Metadata JSON
{"pattern_id": "three_drop_then_rise", "pattern_name": "Three Drops Then Rise", "pattern_window": 4, "trade_count": 22, "win_rate": 0.3636, "total_return": 0.059126, "avg_return": 0.002688, "avg_bars": 5.82, "first_trade_time": 1753315200000, "last_trade_time": 1760515200000, "exit_reason_counts": {"post_wait_drop": 22}, "exit_reason_shares": {"post_wait_drop": 1.0}, "drop_streak_required": 3, "post_entry_wait_bars": 5, "exit_rule": "first_drop_after_wait", "commission_per_side": 0.001, "trade_size": 1000.0}
Reasoning JSON
{"total_return": 0.059126, "trade_count": 22, "win_rate": 0.3636, "pattern_id": "three_drop_then_rise", "pattern_name": "Three Drops Then Rise", "long_return": -0.339103, "short_return": 0.339103, "price_return": -0.339103}
Simulation JSON
{"start_time": 1753315200000, "end_time": 1760515200000, "window_size": 4, "pattern_id": "three_drop_then_rise", "pattern_name": "Three Drops Then Rise", "trades_executed": 22, "commission": 0.001, "short_term_return": 0.059126, "long_return": -0.339103, "short_return": 0.339103, "base_start_price": 3.4317, "base_end_price": 2.268, "window_candles": [{"time": 1753272000000, "open": 3.4504, "high": 3.4504, "low": 3.2204, "close": 3.3224}, {"time": 1753286400000, "open": 3.3224, "high": 3.3224, "low": 3.1597, "close": 3.1838}, {"time": 1753300800000, "open": 3.1838, "high": 3.2161, "low": 3.02, "close": 3.1838}, {"time": 1753315200000, "open": 3.1839, "high": 3.2373, "low": 3.15, "close": 3.192}], "context_before": [{"time": 1752940800000, "open": 3.4098, "high": 3.4594, "low": 3.4042, "close": 3.4317}, {"time": 1752955200000, "open": 3.4317, "high": 3.4445, "low": 3.38, "close": 3.4244}, {"time": 1752969600000, "open": 3.4243, "high": 3.4513, "low": 3.3856, "close": 3.4345}, {"time": 1752984000000, "open": 3.4345, "high": 3.4584, "low": 3.4022, "close": 3.4419}, {"time": 1752998400000, "open": 3.442, "high": 3.5352, "low": 3.4419, "close": 3.4987}, {"time": 1753012800000, "open": 3.4988, "high": 3.5466, "low": 3.4777, "close": 3.5183}, {"time": 1753027200000, "open": 3.5182, "high": 3.5579, "low": 3.483, "close": 3.5234}, {"time": 1753041600000, "open": 3.5235, "high": 3.5258, "low": 3.4038, "close": 3.454}, {"time": 1753056000000, "open": 3.4541, "high": 3.4897, "low": 3.4076, "close": 3.4785}, {"time": 1753070400000, "open": 3.4784, "high": 3.5809, "low": 3.4716, "close": 3.5663}, {"time": 1753084800000, "open": 3.5664, "high": 3.5797, "low": 3.5209, "close": 3.5329}, {"time": 1753099200000, "open": 3.5329, "high": 3.6495, "low": 3.4996, "close": 3.604}, {"time": 1753113600000, "open": 3.604, "high": 3.6239, "low": 3.527, "close": 3.5465}, {"time": 1753128000000, "open": 3.5465, "high": 3.575, "low": 3.5117, "close": 3.5495}, {"time": 1753142400000, "open": 3.5494, "high": 3.5744, "low": 3.4618, "close": 3.5007}, {"time": 1753156800000, "open": 3.5006, "high": 3.5034, "low": 3.4218, "close": 3.4762}, {"time": 1753171200000, "open": 3.4761, "high": 3.5225, "low": 3.4261, "close": 3.5198}, {"time": 1753185600000, "open": 3.5198, "high": 3.5371, "low": 3.4401, "close": 3.5076}, {"time": 1753200000000, "open": 3.5076, "high": 3.5787, "low": 3.4916, "close": 3.5177}, {"time": 1753214400000, "open": 3.5177, "high": 3.5541, "low": 3.513, "close": 3.5504}, {"time": 1753228800000, "open": 3.5504, "high": 3.5519, "low": 3.488, "close": 3.4915}, {"time": 1753243200000, "open": 3.4915, "high": 3.5107, "low": 3.4607, "close": 3.4678}, {"time": 1753257600000, "open": 3.4677, "high": 3.4755, "low": 3.4304, "close": 3.4504}, {"time": 1753272000000, "open": 3.4504, "high": 3.4504, "low": 3.2204, "close": 3.3224}, {"time": 1753286400000, "open": 3.3224, "high": 3.3224, "low": 3.1597, "close": 3.1838}, {"time": 1753300800000, "open": 3.1838, "high": 3.2161, "low": 3.02, "close": 3.1838}], "context_after": [{"time": 1760529600000, "open": 2.4928, "high": 2.5118, "low": 2.4237, "close": 2.4333}, {"time": 1760544000000, "open": 2.4333, "high": 2.4491, "low": 2.4022, "close": 2.4053}, {"time": 1760558400000, "open": 2.4054, "high": 2.4207, "low": 2.3754, "close": 2.4109}, {"time": 1760572800000, "open": 2.411, "high": 2.4354, "low": 2.3996, "close": 2.4182}, {"time": 1760587200000, "open": 2.4181, "high": 2.4333, "low": 2.3973, "close": 2.4104}, {"time": 1760601600000, "open": 2.4104, "high": 2.4573, "low": 2.3533, "close": 2.4524}, {"time": 1760616000000, "open": 2.4524, "high": 2.4665, "low": 2.3375, "close": 2.3554}, {"time": 1760630400000, "open": 2.3553, "high": 2.3989, "low": 2.3078, "close": 2.3271}, {"time": 1760644800000, "open": 2.3271, "high": 2.3361, "low": 2.2833, "close": 2.328}, {"time": 1760659200000, "open": 2.328, "high": 2.4, "low": 2.3199, "close": 2.3584}, {"time": 1760673600000, "open": 2.3584, "high": 2.36, "low": 2.2319, "close": 2.2391}, {"time": 1760688000000, "open": 2.2391, "high": 2.2967, "low": 2.1901, "close": 2.2831}, {"time": 1760702400000, "open": 2.2831, "high": 2.3049, "low": 2.254, "close": 2.268}], "trade_size": 1000.0, "comparison": [], "entry_context": {"time": 1753315200000, "price": 3.192, "trigger": "three_drop_then_rise", "orientation": "long", "summary": "Entry opened after 3 consecutive drops followed by the first bullish candle.", "notes": ["Entry price: 3.192", "Commission per side: 0.001", "Total trades: 22", "Win rate so far: 36.36%", "Mandatory post-entry hold: 5 bars", "Exit trigger: first drop after the mandatory hold period"]}, "exit_context": {"time": 1760515200000, "price": 2.4928, "trigger": "post_wait_drop", "summary": "Closed 22 trades; final exit reason: post_wait_drop. Aggregate return: 5.91%.", "notes": ["Last trade direction: long", "Bars held: 5", "Trade P&L: -0.38%", "Average trade return: 0.27%", "Average holding: 5.82 bars", "Exit mix: Post Wait Drop 22/22 (100.0%)", "Waited at least 5 bars before looking for a drop to exit."], "projections": {"trade_count": 22, "wins": 8, "losses": 14}}, "trades": [{"direction": "long", "entry_index": 26, "exit_index": 31, "entry_time": 1753315200000, "exit_time": 1753387200000, "entry_price": 3.192, "exit_price": 3.1453, "gross_return": -0.01463, "net_return": -0.01663, "bars_held": 5, "entry_pattern": "three_drop_then_rise", "exit_reason": "post_wait_drop", "entry_window": [{"time": 1753272000000, "open": 3.4504, "high": 3.4504, "low": 3.2204, "close": 3.3224}, {"time": 1753286400000, "open": 3.3224, "high": 3.3224, "low": 3.1597, "close": 3.1838}, {"time": 1753300800000, "open": 3.1838, "high": 3.2161, "low": 3.02, "close": 3.1838}, {"time": 1753315200000, "open": 3.1839, "high": 3.2373, "low": 3.15, "close": 3.192}], "exit_window": [{"time": 1753344000000, "open": 3.075, "high": 3.1788, "low": 3.055, "close": 3.1685}, {"time": 1753358400000, "open": 3.1684, "high": 3.2651, "low": 3.1185, "close": 3.2261}, {"time": 1753372800000, "open": 3.2261, "high": 3.2603, "low": 3.1686, "close": 3.2087}, {"time": 1753387200000, "open": 3.2087, "high": 3.2426, "low": 3.126, "close": 3.1453}], "entry_signal_strength": 3, "exit_signal_strength": null, "commission_used": 0.001}, {"direction": "long", "entry_index": 76, "exit_index": 82, "entry_time": 1754035200000, "exit_time": 1754121600000, "entry_price": 2.9707, "exit_price": 2.9404, "gross_return": -0.0102, "net_return": -0.0122, "bars_held": 6, "entry_pattern": "three_drop_then_rise", "exit_reason": "post_wait_drop", "entry_window": [{"time": 1753992000000, "open": 3.0578, "high": 3.0675, "low": 3.0108, "close": 3.0224}, {"time": 1754006400000, "open": 3.0223, "high": 3.026, "low": 2.9292, "close": 2.9983}, {"time": 1754020800000, "open": 2.9982, "high": 2.9982, "low": 2.9351, "close": 2.9558}, {"time": 1754035200000, "open": 2.9558, "high": 2.9721, "low": 2.892, "close": 2.9707}], "exit_window": [{"time": 1754078400000, "open": 3.0142, "high": 3.029, "low": 2.8959, "close": 2.9613}, {"time": 1754092800000, "open": 2.9614, "high": 2.986, "low": 2.9478, "close": 2.9834}, {"time": 1754107200000, "open": 2.9834, "high": 3.0206, "low": 2.9456, "close": 2.9924}, {"time": 1754121600000, "open": 2.9924, "high": 3.0023, "low": 2.93, "close": 2.9404}], "entry_signal_strength": 3, "exit_signal_strength": null, "commission_used": 0.001}, {"direction": "long", "entry_index": 86, "exit_index": 94, "entry_time": 1754179200000, "exit_time": 1754294400000, "entry_price": 2.8358, "exit_price": 2.9925, "gross_return": 0.055258, "net_return": 0.053258, "bars_held": 8, "entry_pattern": "three_drop_then_rise", "exit_reason": "post_wait_drop", "entry_window": [{"time": 1754136000000, "open": 2.9404, "high": 2.9466, "low": 2.822, "close": 2.83}, {"time": 1754150400000, "open": 2.83, "high": 2.8658, "low": 2.7418, "close": 2.7794}, {"time": 1754164800000, "open": 2.7793, "high": 2.8179, "low": 2.7387, "close": 2.7695}, {"time": 1754179200000, "open": 2.7695, "high": 2.8411, "low": 2.728, "close": 2.8358}], "exit_window": [{"time": 1754251200000, "open": 2.9163, "high": 2.9625, "low": 2.9015, "close": 2.948}, {"time": 1754265600000, "open": 2.9481, "high": 3.0312, "low": 2.9312, "close": 2.9983}, {"time": 1754280000000, "open": 2.9984, "high": 3.019, "low": 2.9661, "close": 3.0119}, {"time": 1754294400000, "open": 3.0119, "high": 3.0241, "low": 2.9767, "close": 2.9925}], "entry_signal_strength": 3, "exit_signal_strength": null, "commission_used": 0.001}, {"direction": "long", "entry_index": 120, "exit_index": 125, "entry_time": 1754668800000, "exit_time": 1754740800000, "entry_price": 3.3389, "exit_price": 3.273, "gross_return": -0.019737, "net_return": -0.021737, "bars_held": 5, "entry_pattern": "three_drop_then_rise", 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